On 15 April 2025, during a visit to the city of Las Anod in Sool, Prime Minister Hassan Abdi Barre officially declared the federal government’s recognition of SSC-Khaatumo (SSC-K hereafter) as a federal member state, marking an important milestone in the emergence of a new and autonomous federal member state between Puntland and Somaliland. At the same time, this step brought to the fore unresolved tensions rooted in the collapse of the Somali state and the attempt to revive it. Unresolved issues, such as the status of Somaliland, relations between the federal government in Mogadishu and federal member states, and questions about the process of federal state formation and their borders. These issues have constitutional implications, particularly on power-sharing arrangements between the federal government and FMS, which the constitution does not fully define and clarify.
The study explores how the emergence of SSC-K has generated, and has the potential to generate, conflicts and disputes rooted in these unresolved tensions, and possible constructive responses. The study is structured to answer the following questions: How is SSC-K managing the transition from wartime mobilization to civilian administration? How will it manage relations with Somaliland and Puntland? How is the emergence of SSC-K impacting the political futures of other Harti groups in these regions, particularly the Warsangeli? How is SSC-K’s emergence impacting Puntland, internally? How will it redefine relations between Puntland and the federal government, especially as SSC-K seeks to disentangle itself from Puntland’s historical claims and political frameworks? How will the formation of SSC-K impact the future trajectory of Somaliland’s territorial ambitions and claims?
The emergence of SSC-K and the political dynamics, interests, choices and the competing perspectives on it is a fluid subject matter because the process of SSC-K’s formation and expansion continues as we write this. In the course of researching and writing this report, there have been several important developments. First, there is a conference in Las Anod, supported and facilitated by the federal government, to expand and transition SSC-K from an interim administration to a permanent federal member state. Second, this conference includes a delegation from eastern Sanaag, representing a segment of the Warsangeli. The Warsangeli, as will be detailed in the report, are divided with the majority led by the traditional elders preferring to remain with Puntland, while others want to join SSC-K. Third, the conference has reached several important decisions: the name SSC-K was officially changed to North Eastern State of Somalia on 1 August (throughout this report, we will use SSC-K, rather than the newly adopted name because the transition is not complete); a new constitution for the new state has been adopted; and, at the moment, discussions are ongoing about the division of power and the selection of parliamentarians. Consequently, the dynamics, positions and perspectives described in this report should be seen as preliminary and subject to change given the fluid nature of the context.
Developments during the state formation conference in Las Anod are turning SSC-K into a reality as the newest member of Somalia’s federal member states. The newly emerging state has several advantages that are assisting its transition to a permanent federal member state. These advantages include the support of a united and enthusiastic Dhulbahante community and the backing of the federal government. These advantages are helping to transition SSC-K into a permanent federal member state. There are also serious challenges that the newly emerging state will have to negotiate in the foreseeable future. These include the lack of Warsangeli consensus on joining SSC-K, the rejection of SSC-K by Somaliland and Puntland, and financial limitations. Given recent developments, the most likely outcome is that SSC-K transitions into a permanent federal member state without the resolution of any of these difficult challenges. This suggests that even if SSC-K is successful in addressing internal issues, such as its financial challenges and potential disagreements over power sharing arrangements, it will likely confront serious difficulties in securing and extending its administration over the territories it claims because the same territories are also claimed by Puntland and Somaliland. In this context, the report suggests the most reasonable position that external actors can take is to advise, encourage and pressure the various parties from taking any actions that exacerbate current tensions.
The Somali Dialogue Platform
This report is a product of the Somali Dialogue Platform. The Somali Dialogue Platform is a programme which supports Somalis to achieve consensus on contentious political issues and is implemented by the Rift Valley Institute. The Somali Dialogue Platform is funded by the Somalia Stability Fund (SSF) III. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the official policies of the SSF III. The Platform maintains editorial independence on all its products.
