Since 2018, Gambella has experienced several conflicts. While some can be categorized as a continuation of protracted conflicts in the region, others can be attributed to the post-2018 political changes in Addis Ababa. The major conflicts include, Anywaa–Nuer conflict, the OLA and GLF/A—government conflict, refugees–host community conflict, Majang–highlander conflicts and the cross-border conflict.

SUMMARY

• The most protracted and violent conflicts have been fought between the Anywaa and the Nuer communities. These two ethnic groups have been entangled in conflict for many decades, albeit with varying degrees of intensity. However, the direct involvement of South Sudanese Nuer White Army militia in support of their Ethiopian Nuer kinsfolk, and the mobilization of Anywaa youths from other areas set apart these recent conflicts from the previous one.
• The political change in Addis Ababa in 2018 and subsequent proliferation of armed groups throughout the country, especially the OLA and GLF/A insurrections, have aggravated the local conflicts in Gambella. This combined with the dissolution of regional special forces in April 2023 created a security vacuum that exacerbated existing local conflicts in the region.
• Beneath the shifting faces of conflicts in the Gambella region, four underlying factors are discussed as the major causes and drivers perpetuating conflicts in the region, namely: disputed ethnic territorial boundaries; conflict in South Sudan and refugee influxes to Gambella; contested inter-ethnic power-sharing schemes; and access to economic resources and opportunities. Hence, the paper argues for the following recommendations:
• The need for a comprehensive peace process that entails genuine peace dialogues and agreements between adjacent kebeles, especially in Itang woreda, along with robust security arrangements to enforce those agreements and deter peace spoilers. 
• The need to thoroughly review all the current informal power-sharing schemes and renegotiate a model that is both acceptable to all ethnic groups in the region and can better serve the interests of the region.
• Ensuring peaceful co-existence between refugees and host communities through innovative approaches that integrate both communities.
• Targeted economic empowerment of indigenous communities, especially addressing youth unemployment, including through affirmative economic programmes.

This conflict trends analysis was produced by the Ethiopia Peace Research Facility (PRF). The PRF is an independent facility combining timely analysis on peace and conflict from Ethiopian experts with support for conflict sensitive programming in the country. It is managed by the Rift Valley Institute and funded by the UK government.