On 14 February 2013, RVI Fellow Jérôme Tubiana wrote about the continuing conflict in South Kordofan and the Nuba Mountains in a report for the International Crisis Group. In Sudan’s Spreading Conflict (I): War in South Kordofan, he says that the conflict ‘shows every sign of strategic stalemate, with each side hoping pressure from elsewhere will change its foe’s calculations, yet it is exacting an horrendous toll, principally among civilians.’ ‘The root causes of the conflict—political marginalisation, land dispossession, and unimplemented promises—remain the same. But ethnic dynamics have changed in important ways.’ ‘Neither side is strong enough to win militarily,’ he concludes; ‘a negotiated solution is the only viable solution.’